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Fenerbahce vs Liverpool: a test in Istanbul for the Reds

🏆 UEFA Champions League🕒 Kick-off: 04.11.2026 · 18:45 WAT / 20:45 EAT

Can Liverpool keep their perfect start in the UEFA Champions League intact in Istanbul? Our Fenerbahce vs Liverpool prediction looks at form, absences and the key numbers, then explains our betting tip.

Our predictionLiverpool or draw and over 1.5 goals

1.27

Do you agree with this prediction?

Form: unbeaten Reds, struggling hosts

Liverpool have won all three of their league-phase games and scored 12 goals along the way. Their last outing was a frustrating Premier League defeat to Arsenal, so Andoni Iraola will want a quick response.

Fenerbahce have only two points from three matches, with a 1-1 draw against Roma, a 2-2 draw with Slavia Prague and a heavy 6-0 loss at Aston Villa. One form guide shows three defeats in their last five across all competitions.

Head-to-head: no history, but a poor record in Turkey

This is the first competitive meeting between the clubs, so the best guide is Liverpool's record in Turkey. Previews note they have won only four of 11 European games against Turkish sides, never won away in the country, and lost all five matches played in Istanbul.

Team news: thin at the back for Liverpool

Ryan Gravenberch is out with a heel problem and stayed in England. Hugo Ekitiké, Jeremie Frimpong, Giovanni Leoni and Conor Bradley are also unavailable, which leaves the defence stretched.

Fenerbahce are missing centre-back Jayden Oosterwolde with a hamstring injury, and Kojo Peprah Oppong was forced off in a recent league match. Ederson is expected in goal and Vedat Muriqi should lead the line, though he is still searching for his first Champions League goal.

Key numbers and what to expect

Opta's supercomputer gives Liverpool a 59% share of wins in pre-match simulations. Fenerbahce have pressed well, producing 33 high turnovers in their first three Champions League games, with only Arsenal doing more.

Expect Liverpool to enjoy more of the ball, while the hosts will look to strike quickly on the counter in front of their own crowd.

Our pick: Liverpool or draw and over 1.5 goals at 1.27

Our tip is Liverpool or draw and over 1.5 goals, priced at 1.27. It covers an away win and a home draw, and needs only two goals in total. With 12 goals scored in three games and Fenerbahce's defence exposed by Villa's 6-0 win, a match with at least two goals looks likely. A 2-1 or a 1-1 result settles the bet as a winner.

Pre-match odds move, and one preview quoted a Liverpool win at 8/15 (about 1.53). Short prices like 1.27 leave little margin for error, so stake sensibly.

Our prediction

Our verdict: Liverpool or draw and over 1.5 goals at 1.27. The Reds have the stronger European results this season, while Fenerbahce are short of points and defensive solutions. The risk is the Istanbul atmosphere and Liverpool's poor record in the city, which is why we include the draw. No bet is guaranteed, so manage your bankroll.

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